GOVERNANCE WITHOUT GROWTH IN NIGERIA’S FOURTH REPUBLIC: DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND ECONOMIC REALITIES

Abstract

Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, expectations have been high that political liberalization would drive sustainable economic growth. Yet, over two decades into the Fourth Republic, poverty, unemployment, and infrastructural deficits persist despite successive civilian administrations. This study interrogates the paradox of democratic governance without commensurate economic development in Nigeria. Drawing on modernization theory, the study examines structural, institutional and policy constraints hindering transformation. Using a qualitative-descriptive approach and secondary data from governance indices, national reports and policy documents (1999–2023), the findings reveal that democracy alone does not guarantee prosperity in contexts weakened by rentier-state structures, corruption, policy inconsistency and elite capture of public institutions. The study argues that without stronger accountability frameworks, fiscal discipline and deeper economic diversification, Nigeria’s democracy will remain politically vibrant but economically fragile. It concludes that inclusive, transparent socio-economic governance is essential for translating democratic legitimacy into sustainable development.